Tren Elektabilitas Capres-Cawapres Menjelang Pilpres 2009
Diperbarui: 21 Sep 2021
Tren Elektabilitas Capres-Cawapres Menjelang Pilpres 2009
Pemilihan Presiden 2009 memasuki fase genting dan menentukan bagi ketiga pasang capres dan cawapres. Waktu yang tersisa menjelang tanggal 8 Juli 2009 menjadi ajang menaikkan elektabilitas kandidat. Hampir semua cara telah dicoba, mulai dengan memaksimalkan “perang udara” dan “perang darat”. Strategi pencitraan dengan memoles kandidat juga telah dilakukan masing-masing tim sukses dan konsultan. Isu-isu panas dan menyengat juga sudah ditebar, saling rebutan klaim keberhasilan, hingga deretan isu-isu kampanye negatif dan black campaign telah mewarnai peta politik sebulan terakhir.
Dalam survei LSI 15-20 Juni 2009, SBY-Boediono dipilih oleh 67%, Mega-Pro 16%, dan JK-Win 9%. Keunggulan jauh yang sedikit menurun ini konsisten dengan sejumlah indikator makro, terutama kepuasan pada JK yang sedikit naik, dan pada SBY yang sedikit turun.
SBY-Boediono mengalami penurunan sekitar 3% (dari70%) dalam 20 hari. Bila penurunan ini dibaca secara konservatif, SBY-Boediono sekarang berada pada posisi 64%. Berarti mengalami penurunan sebanyak 4%bila survei sebelumnya juga dibaca secara konservatif (68%, bukan 70%).
Bila penurunan ini linear dan dibaca secara konservatif SBY-Boediono kemungkinan akan turun lagi sebanyak 4% pada hari H, sehingga perolehan suara pada hari H kemungkinan 60%. Penurunan linear ini mungkin terjadi karena tekanan dari lawannya kurang kuat. Mega-Pro cenderung stabil atau bahkan menurun, sedangkan kemajuan JK-Win kurang kuat, hanya sekitar 5% dalam 20 hari bila dibaca secara optimis untuk JK-Win.
Kalau tidak ada peristiwa luar biasa, dan tak terkendali, kemungkinan JK akan naik, secara optimis, menjadi 20%.
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